Rumor: Absent a major collapse, Arthur Smith unlikely to be fired

The NFL’s most plugged-in reporters think Arthur Smith returns to the Atlanta Falcons for his fourth season.

Arthur Smith appears certain to stay for his fourth season as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, despite having three

straight lackluster seasons. That’s the word from two of the best NFL reporters,

Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero, who don’t see Smith fired short of a

frustrating collapse in the last stretch of the 2023 campaign.

The rumor aligns with past public rumors under team owner Arthur Blank. In 2014, it was widely rumored that then-head coach Mike Smith would return in 2015 if he could beat the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South. The team lost and Mike Smith was replaced with Dan Quinn. In 2019, it was widely rumored that then-head coach Dan Quinn would return in 2020 if the Falcons were able to finish out the season strong. The team won 6 of its final 8 games and Quinn returned.

Now 2023, the consistent rumor, guided by Arthur Blank’s public statements a few weeks back, is that Arthur Smith will return as long as the Falcons finish

strong. The good news for Smith is that after a season-low loss to the Carolina

Panthers, the Falcons bounced back against the Indianapolis Colts. Atlanta

should have a manageable way to win out as well, with the Chicago Bears and

New Orleans Saints still on the schedule. That still leaves plenty of opportunity for

a Mike Smith-esque end of season collapse.

Rapoport and Pelissero give their understanding of Smith’s future in Atlanta:

Heading into Year 4, Smith could be in good standing if Atlanta concludes with

strong performances in its last two games. The 81-year-old owner of the

Falcons might think otherwise if it’s a freefall.

The announcement is not a vote of confidence for Arthur Smith. It’s evident

from Blank that the Falcons have fallen short of expectations. Rather, it appears

like Smith hasn’t done enough to be fired (as opposed to earning the job).

The fundamental theory behind the claim is that the franchise had to contend with the cap hell that Thomas Dimitroff had instituted, knowing full well that the team’s initial seasons would be spent rebuilding. This might just be a means of presenting a fresh story to supporters; every summer, the team—from Blank to Smith to Terry Fontenot—offers updated accounts of the team, its current state, and the rationale behind particular decisions made or not. Blank stated a few months ago that this was the third year of a three-year reconstruction. Currently, 2023 is regarded as the rebuild’s first “real” year. The article also notes that even though Ridder was selected, the Falcons “never went all-in on Ridder.” the starter heading into camp after receiving a lot of attention during the winter.

It’s difficult to determine expectations and the real position of the Falcons due to the conflicting tales. Rapoport and Pelissero, however, make it apparent that the Falcons are expected to address the quarterback position. It appears that Smith will get another chance with a fourth quarterback in four years, and Ridder might be held accountable for the 2023 campaign.